@Jimsavoldi has been looing for some major event that would lead into from his prediction of certain market failures. Afghanistan’s present catastrophe looks like it might domino in unfortunate ways.
Open contemplation.
There’s many things going on right now. You have China, covid, Korea, etc. just take your lick, AMC is waiting for one of them to light the candle
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We are over due a move in to a big market correction that could take years to playout. Not just a crash. It’s a possibility that these new ATH’s we have seen recently with the major indexes, we may never see a new ATH in our life times.
Trading on the catalysts is much more difficult than taking up advanced prediction methods. A photograph is only 2 dimensions and only as it progresses from different angles will the 3rd dimension communicate anything.
This contemplation is just an intelligent distraction from the 2 dimension security certificates. Its fun to know what we are looking at… before it happens. Horror movies in real life are not as cool as they are in the movies… That’s what makes Astrology so popular.
the port shut down in china is more likely to cause the USA direct harm
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and i’m hearing of another cyber attack on an oil pipeline
State department also just reported a cyberattack that could have happened as far back as a couple weeks ago. I guess they just discovered it.
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Let’s be real - the current administration is a complete dumpster fire. How does that typically resolve? War.
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BOOM! (no pun intended)
welcome to “it’s always just been this way.”
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Hey I got some leads on contracting jobs if prior military most or 10 day or under and 2k a day. Security and extraction teams in Afghanistan.
I could see Afghanistan causing a price drop in defense contractor/equipment stocks since there wouldn’t be any new equipment orders to support the war effort. This could go away if China causes injuries in Taiwan. I would not be surprised if part of the impetus for the rapid pullout had something to do with reallocation of troops and equipment in nations around the Pacific
Would have been true under a best case scenario. Billions of dollars of equipment and work just went to the Taliban. Taliban’re not going to been keen on giving it back out of the kindness of their Taliban hearts.
As for China, Do you think their reverse engineering of equipment (soon to be?) bought from the Taliban will be as terrible as the stuff they sell back to us in the US? May have bought some time to occupy China before they start something, but China is not stupid, having the US look so bad is great for them. Why would they want to help it go away? I would bet they sit back and let others do the dirty work until it is all too easy for them to have whatever they want.
I think the port shut down plays will with that creed.
Cost more to bring back the desks, chairs, tents, trucks, etc
than they are worth/cost. So you leave in place and destroy
to save money.
China could care less about the junk left behind.
The play in Afghanistan is its MINERAL WEALTH.
Not copying US leftovers.
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I think China is buying some surplus from the Taliban the same way they bought that drone from Iran. In terms of reverse engineering, it will take them a couple years unless they already stole the documentation in their last two major hacks. IIRC, the state department is always the preferred attack vector for foreign governments bypassing our security as well as messing up refugee visas. Ripping the firmware and EEPROM on radio equipment and AA equipment are my biggest concerns. I will admit the machine shops that supply one of my factories over there is phenomenal and can hold 0.05mm tolerances for production volumes with a proper temper. Their 10Cent knockoff of PayPal+Facebook really does revolutionize brick and morter payments. WePay and Ali Pay would be wonderful if you didn’t need prior approval to open a Chinese bank account.
Overall, their government is excessively cracking down on the population in addition to the floods. They are also being extremely aggressive with Taiwan. Many of the people I met over there in the north east also have no interest in going to war (It’s more of a boomer era support). If a conflict starts, it might backfire unless their weaponry is technologically sufficient to sustain a fight with Taiwan.