AMC and AA Incentives

General Discussion
#1

Hi all—

This potentially could have gone under AMC Earning and AA Commentary but I decided to start a new thread if that is okay—

This morning I had a few thoughts (utilizing some “Logical Reasoning” classes from college, or at least attempting to).

Take for a given A =
AA, his team, and the general public are aware that Covid-19 may be with us for some time, variants have arrived, and US lockdowns may be imminent (and may continue intermittently in the future)

Take for a given B =
If this Covid situation continues, lockdowns return, etc. this poses a grave risk to AMC’s business model going forward (no matter how much innovation they can muster up, theater-goers in close proximity to each other is the baseline)

Take for a given C =
If there is a short squeeze/price run-up/black swan “event” with AMC stock (or multiple), the retail community will be indebted to AA and AMC “for life” and will make sure the company stays afloat
—> This may be wishful thinking, but AA and his team likely believe so as well (we’ve seen AA proactively embrace the retail community, AA interact with top AMCApe YouTubers, leaders like Trey saying they will always hold AMC stock in their portfolio/buy back in, AMCApes embracing AA as “The Silverback”, etc.)
—> I personally can foresee a situation where “event” happens, price plummets to level more in tune with fundamentals, on-going Covid situation threatens AMC and the AMCApe community comes in to “pay back” the company (think of the potential social media rush of #SaveAMC, #ApesAreBack, #AMCApeForever, etc.), I know I’m likely not alone in this thinking

With A, B, and C, it would make sense that AA and his team would want this AMC stock “event” (or multiple “events”) to happen as soon as possible and may try to “influence” as such (within the legal/regulatory boundaries, as discussed on the other thread). It seems like a sure-fire way to keep AMC afloat no matter what happens (or as close to sure-fire as possible, in a rapidly-changing world).

Even though we know that AMC stock is removed from fundamentals at this point, a combination of retail exhaustion/anger/lockdowns as threat to AMC business model may be a stark combination (just reading the tea leaves as we move into Winter).

My analysis may of course be wrong, may be too pessimistic with regards to Covid, may be misaligned from how AA and his team see the Covid situation, etc.

That said, this may well underpin some of the upside Jim and the BAM model is predicting.

What are your thoughts? Thanks for reading.

#2

Very interesting and logical. I don’t know what will happen, but I think you have made some really good points that should be considered when trying to determine the possible outcomes. I don’t think any of it will stop what the BAM model is predicting for this month though.

I appreciate your well thought out scenario’s and the time you spent to share them with us.

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